
Credit: The Simpsons
The phrase “dead man walking” often paints a grim picture of a person on death row. Fortunately, college football ain’t that serious. It is a game after all, and we’re all just watching an entertainment product.
In the spirit of talkin’ season, I think now is a great time to look inside the magical, all-knowing crystal ball and make predictions about the upcoming college football campaign. As is a time-honored tradition, let’s look ahead to the new season and make some predictions about coaches who may or may not be fired along the way.
In traditional fashion, I’ll label the following coaches as one of the following:
Cooked - These coaches, no matter how much you squint, turn your head or do mental gymnastics, you just can’t seem to see enough winnable games on their upcoming schedule.
Almost Cooked - The coaches in this category are sweating bullets and can hear the reaper knocking on the door.
Might Be Cooked - Coin flip games make or break football seasons, and with this group, if the ball bounces the right way, maybe they can eke out enough wins to stave off the college football reaper.
The “I’m Not Saying, I’m Just Saying” Group - This is your hot take group. The coaches and scenarios that you fire off to your group chat, hoping to plant the seed of something going wrong down the line.
Let’s take a look at my list of coaches who might be updating their LinkedIn profiles in the next few months.
Justin Wilcox - Cal (Cooked)
Justin Wilcox might have the hottest seat in the country. After a monster offseason player exodus, pressure is mounting on Wilcox to deliver wins in a hurry. Key offseason departures include All-Conference running back Jaydn Ott (and almost every other running back on the roster) and former quarterback Fernando Mendoza, among others.
To supercharge the offense, Wilcox hired former Boise State and Auburn head coach Bryan Harsin. With so many weapons gone from last season’s group, Harsin certainly has his work cut out for him.
In 2024, the offensive line gave up a whopping 50 sacks. That unit needs to massively improve if this team has any chance of stacking more wins in 2025.
The schedule is favorable, so I can’t totally rule out Wilcox staving off the Grim Reaper. That said, he might be the odds-on favorite to be the first coach fired.
Brent Brennan - Arizona (Cooked)
Brent Brennan had a disastrous first year in Tucson, finishing 4-8 with just two wins in Big 12 play. Last season, Wildcat fans were bracing for offensive fireworks with Noah Fafita and Teteroioa McMillan. And while that side of the ball did some nice things, the defense was so bad that the losses piled up.
Now, McMillan is off to the NFL, and the Wildcats are lacking a big-time, offensive playmaker.
The Big 12 can be topsy-turvy, so I hesitate to say never. But I really don’t see the Wildcats improving on last year’s showing. And if so, the behind-the-scenes shotcallers might look to make a move in the offseason.
Hugh Freeze - Auburn (Might Be Cooked)
Hugh Freeze has fallen flat since arriving at Auburn before the 2023 season. He’s amassed a poor 11-14 record, and his calling card offensive wizardry has been non-existent.
Auburn fans are notably restless and irrational. I think it’s fair to ask how much more losing they can tolerate.
Despite being on the hot seat, there is some hope for Freeze in 2025. He portaled Jackson Arnold away from OU and has high hopes that he can get the Tiger offense on track. Cam Coleman and Eric Singleton Jr. are some serious weapons on the outside, but if Arnold is no good, it could be all for not.
Early games against Baylor and Oklahoma could tell the story for the Tigers in 2025. Freeze likely needs eight wins to comfortably keep his place.
Brent Venables - Oklahoma (Almost Cooked)
Schedules don’t get much more difficult than Oklahoma’s 2025 slate. The Sooners have conference games against Texas, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Alabama and LSU. Toss in an early non-conference showdown against Michigan, and things could get dicey in a hurry.
Venables was a stellar defensive coordinator, but he’s come up short so far as a head coach and now finds himself squarely on the hot seat. OU is a proud program, and 22-17 over three years simply isn’t good enough.
The Sooners made sweeping changes this offseason. Ben Arbuckle is in as the offensive coordinator. And former Wazzu quarterback John Mateer followed Arbuckle to Norman, hoping to jolt some life into a struggling offense.
If Mateer pops and the defense is good as advertised, the Sooners could stay afloat. But I’m unsure about how many wins keep Venables around. Does 7-5 get it done? What about 8-4?
I’m guessing anything short of eight wins will see Oklahoma make a coaching change in the offseason.
Mark Stoops - Kentucky (Might Be Cooked)
Two years ago, Stoops was this close to being named the next head coach at Texas A&M, but at the 11th hour, the Aggies pivoted and instead hired Mike Elko.
Since then, things have gotten awkward in Lexington. The Wildcats went 7-6 in 2023 but stumbled to just four wins last season.
It feels as if the writing is on the wall for Stoops. Kentucky fans have soured on him, and he’s already publicly angled for another job. This situation feels like it’s reached the point of no return.
Awkwardness aside, Kentucky plays a difficult SEC schedule this season, and barring something wildly impressive, I don’t see a big improvement on last year’s 4-8 mark.
Stoops does have a cushy contract and a sizeable buyout. But if Kirk Ferentz retires at Iowa, it wouldn’t be a total shock to see Stoops explore a move back to his alma mater.
I have a feeling 2025 is the last dance for Stoops and Kentucky.
Sam Pittman - Arkansas (Cooked)
The Pittboss is just 30-31 since taking over in 2020. At some point, Razorback administrators and fans will want to hop off the treadmill of mediocrity.
Quarterback Taylen Green has some seriously fun dual-threat abilities. And perhaps he can take a leap and drag this team to some extra wins. But barring a big jump from Green, I don’t see the wins on this schedule.
The Razorbacks play an extremely daunting schedule that includes games against Ole Miss, Notre Dame, Tennessee, Texas A&M, LSU, Texas and Missouri.
The end feels near for The Pittboss.
Sonny Cumbie - Louisiana Tech (Cooked)
Sonny Cumbie and Louisiana Tech are in a loveless marriage. The pairing is just in it for the kids.
Through four years in Ruston, Cumbie’s teams have gone just 13-29. He has not made a legitimate bowl game, and I don’t understand what we’re doing here.
Louisiana Tech has some serious money troubles, which is the only reason why Cumbie still has a head coaching job. Barring a big-time turnaround, at some point, La Tech will move on from Cumbie. From where I sit, that might as well be after or during the 2025 season.
Tony Elliott - Virginia (Might Be Cooked)
UVA was lauded for luring Tony Elliott away from Clemson almost four years ago. He was seen as a smart hire and was expected to inject some pop into an offense that had stagnated.
Three seasons later, Elliott finds himself on the hot seat entering 2025. 11 wins in three years is just not good enough, even at a place like Charlottesville. Elliott was supposed to fix the offense. That hasn’t happened, and I’m not sure I expect it to be any different moving forward.
Perhaps the only saving grace for Elliott and the Cavaliers in 2025 is the schedule. UVA has a pretty favorable draw this fall and avoids games against conference front-runners Clemson, SMU, FSU and Miami.
If new transfer quarterback Chandler Morris hits, perhaps the Hoos can break off some wins. But I’m skeptical the defense will be good enough, and think Elliott will be lucky to keep his job beyond this season.
Luke Fickell - Wisconsin (Might Be Cooked)
Last year, Wisconsin missed a bowl game for the first time in 23 years. And although Fickell received a one-year extension this offseason, he remains one of the more likely fired coaches on this list.
Fickell deserves credit for attempting to modernize the Badgers’ offense with former OC Phil Longo’s Dairy Raid. But three seasons of quarterback roulette and a false identity have held this team back. In an attempt to fix a problem he created, Fickell turned to new OC Jeff Grimes to bring this offense back from the dead.
Wisconsin has one of the toughest schedules in college football in 2025 with marquee games against Alabama, Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan, Indiana and Illinois.
Even if this team improves, that schedule is unrelenting and could be Fickell’s demise.
Mike Gundy - Oklahoma State (Might Be Cooked)
After a dreadful 2024 campaign and a newly restructured contract that gives the OSU brass a clear exit ramp, there are more questions than answers surrounding Gundy and the Cowboys program.
Gundy does his best work when his back is against the wall, but even in a topsy-turvy Big 12 conference, 2025 feels like a tall ask. The Cowboys will be forced to integrate a new starting quarterback and need to clean up the defense in a hurry.
The Cowboys have tough games against Oregon, Baylor, Texas Tech, Kansas State and Kansas.
In 20 years in Stillwater, Mike Gundy has done a whole hell of a lot of winning. But Father Time catches up to us all, and I fear that 2025 might be the last saloon for Gundy at Oklahoma State.
Mike Norvell - Florida State (I’m Not Saying, I’m Just Saying)
Florida State was the laughing stock of the college football world last season, posting an unfathomably bad 2-10 record. Despite previous success, that type of awful output has pushed head coach Mike Norvell closer to the hot seat.
Norvell made sweeping changes in the offseason, replacing the old OC/DC combo with former UCF head coach Gus Malzahn and former Nebraska DC Tony White. FSU also flipped the roster via the transfer portal, the most notable addition being former Boston College quarterback Tommy Castellanos.
Norvell has a monster buyout, which may prove too rich for FSU to fire him even with another bad season. But I’ve learned to never doubt a determined bunch.
It feels next to impossible for FSU to be quite as bad as last season. But I’m having a hard time grasping how good this team can be. Keep an eye on this space as the season progresses.
Trent Dilfer - UAB (Cooked)
It’s hard to argue with his logic. Since Dilfer’s arrival, UAB has gone from a winning program to one stuck in mediocrity. Dilfer’s prickly personality has done him no favors, either.
Two seasons into the Dilfer experiment, the Blazers are just 7-17 and have had to wear several lopsided losses in the process.
I don’t see a fairytale ending for Dilfer. The AD should’ve fired him last season. Hopefully, the powers at be come to their senses and rip the Band-Aid off in 2025.
