ICYMI, FanDuel released its win totals for the 2026 college football regular season last week. While I’ve grown exhausted by the constant gambling angle in college football, I do find win totals to be a helpful tool for understanding program outlooks for a given season.
Today is the official start of March Madness (arguably the second-best time of the year behind the start of college football), and while I know many of you (myself included) will be focused on being on the right side of a mid-major upset, I figured now is as good a time as any to fire off some #takes.
As promised, here are three rapid-fire takes on win totals for a trio of College Football Playoff hopefuls.
Alabama - 8.5 wins
I almost fell out of my chair when I saw this number.
We’ve been told for years that the Houndstooth Wall of Jericho would come tumbling down sooner rather than later. And while some might say there have been cracks in the foundation since the transition from Nick Saban to Kalen DeBoer, I wouldn’t be so quick to count the Crimson Tide out yet.
Yes, Alabama is in the midst of a full-blown quarterback battle between former Washington QB Austin Mack and hot-shot recruit Keelon Russell. And yes, I know the Crimson Tide couldn’t run the ball to save their lives last season.
But 8.5 wins? Give me a break.
Alabama has a lot of things to fix before the start of next season. DeBoer needs to find a quarterback. The new-look offensive line needs to find leaders and gel quickly. And the defense needs to rediscover some of the piss and vinegar they played with during Saban’s heyday. Even with those issues, I struggle to see how Alabama doesn’t somewhat compete despite the tricky schedule.
If we play the schedule game, Alabama should be comfortably 5-0 (with wins over Florida State and South Carolina) before a primetime showdown against Kirby Smart’s Georgia. Let’s say Alabama drops that one. The Crimson Tide would still be 5-1 before a meaty middle schedule with games at Tennessee, at home against Texas A&M and at LSU.
Even if Alabama is only at 6-3 after that stretch, the Crimson Tide would only need to close out the regular season strong with wins against a Diego Pavia-less Vanderbilt, Chattanooga and an Auburn team with a brand-new coach, quarterback and a ton of transfers. Never say never with the Iron Bowl, but I'm betting that an excellent coach like DeBoer can get things right this season and that Alabama can hit nine wins and flirt with a College Football Playoff bid.
Texas Tech - 11.5 wins
Even if you’re high on the Red Raiders after a triumphant Big 12 title win last season, I’d encourage you to think twice about picking this group to run the table throughout the regular season.
Let me be clear: Texas Tech has an insanely favorable schedule.
The Red Raiders notably miss BYU and Utah in 2026. Texas Tech also draws Houston, Arizona State and TCU at home.
I know, I know, the fellas from Lubbock have an incredible roster and seemingly unlimited warchest of NIL dollars…but do you have faith this team can skate through a regular season unscathed? I sure don’t.
I’m a fan of the Brendan Sorsby acquisition. He’ll be a sizable upgrade over what they had in Behren Morton. The Red Raiders also have a great front office and likely found good replacements for the guys they lost to the draft.
But even so, Big 12 teams are known to do strange things.
If I were a Red Raider fan, my upset-alert antennas would be buzzing when thinking about that late-November road stretch where Texas Tech will travel to Stillwater and Waco in back-to-back weeks.
I love what Joey McGuire is building. Texas Tech will kick a ton of ass this season. I’m just not taking it to the bank that Sorsby remains healthy all season or that they run the table.
Penn State - 9.5 wins
This year in Happy Valley, we’ll finally get the answer to the age-old question: What happens when the man who does more with less finally has to do more with more?
In case you haven’t followed the transfer portal too closely, the 2026 Penn State team will look an awful lot like the 2025 Iowa State team. New coach Matt Campbell portaled in 23 former Cyclones and two of his most trusted confidants in OC Taylor Mouser and OL coach Ryan Clanton, along with four prized recruits.
Former Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht will lead the offense. He’ll be handing it off to Carson Hansen and throwing it to guys like Ben Brahmer and Chase Sowell. There’s something to be said about continuity.
Even so, I’m not sure I see 10 wins on this schedule.
Penn State notably avoids games against Indiana, Ohio State and Oregon, which is a huge W from the schedule gods. That said, the Nittany Lions still have tough road games at Michigan and in Seattle against Washington, along with interesting home games against what should be a much-improved Wisconsin team and a ranked USC team.
Would it be shocking to see Matt Campbell—who’s never faced this level of pressure—drop both critical road games and one home game against a frisky Big 10 opponent? I don’t think so.
Penn State should be good, but I don’t think the Nittany Lions are 10 wins good. Give me the under.
Vegas is betting on continuity for Texas Tech and an Iowa State East surge for Penn State. But I’ll take the disrespected Crimson Tide and Big 12 chaos every day of the week.
Let’s enjoy some basketball, then, shall we? Just don’t blame me when your 13-over-4 upset ruins your Thursday by 2 PM.
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