The new, electronic entrance for Nebraska football. - Wikimedia Commons

In Homer’s Odyssey, Odysseus lives something of a thousand lives on his long journey home.

A valiant hero credited with winning the Trojan War thanks to his Trojan Horse trick, his return to Ithaca was anything but swift. Along the way, he battled monsters, defied gods, weathered storms and resisted temptations—all while clinging to the idea of home. When he finally made it to Ithaca, his palace was in disarray, and he was forced to fight to reclaim his place.

For nearly 30 years, Nebraska football has wandered across the college football landscape in search of relevance. Once Titans of the sport, for so long, the Huskers felt more like a forgotten relic than a reigning power.

Over the last three decades, Nebraska football has endured a slow, painful slide from dominance to dysfunction. It began with the fading twilight of Tom Osborne’s masterful coaching reign as one of college football’s most respected leaders. After his retirement in 1997, the Huskers entered a revolving door of head coaches. Frank Solich was good, but underappreciated. Bill Callahan was a bad fit. Bo Pelini won games but lost control. Mike Riley was too nice. And Scott Frost—once billed as the program’s prodigal son—departed under a cloak of embarrassment and shame.

As the sport evolved around Nebraska—more spread offenses, more money coming from more places and players changing teams more than ever before—for a while longer, the Huskers looked lost. The move from the Big 12 to the Big 10 in 2011 brought bigger paydays, but so far, the wins haven’t followed.

But now with head coach Matt Rhule at the helm and Year 3 on the horizon, the winds might finally be shifting. And for the first time in a long while, Nebraska can almost see the finish line.

After years of wandering, can Nebraska finally find its way back to relevance?

If history tells us anything, Year 3 Matt Rhule teams are a real thing.

When he was at Temple, the Owls went from 2-10 to 10-4 in Year 3. At Baylor, the Bears made a miraculous jump from one win to 11 during his third year in charge.

Nebraska isn’t coming off a letdown Year 2. Most reasonable Husker fans are likely pretty pleased about the 7-6 campaign from a year ago. But that all begs the question: what should we expect from the Year 3 Nebraska team?

Let’s start with what I think.

I think quarterback Dylan Railoa has all the talent in the world. He’s a smooth, natural thrower of the football. He has the wherewithal to understand his limitations and work around them. And he appears to have that necessary gravitational pull that all the good quarterbacks possess.

Last year, the former No. 1 recruit in the country finished the season with a little over 2,800 passing yards, 13 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He accomplished all of this behind a largely suspect offensive line and without proven wideouts.

What does the data tell us about Railoa’s 2024 campaign?

Source: Hudl IQ

Using the Hudl IQ Player Radar, we can see that Raiola did some nice things in the CPOE (Catch Percentage Over Expected) and Completion % departments. In particular, the CPOE percentage is a good indicator that he did a nice job with what he had at his disposal. Quarterback Completion % numbers can tell you one story and actually mean something else…but take it from someone who watched almost all of his snaps last season: even when his pass attempts felt risk-averse, he was doing it for a reason.

Source: Hudl IQ

When you compare Railoa’s numbers to average Big 10 quarterback play, you can see that he fell behind in EPA/Play, EPA/Pass and Explosive %. The low Explosive % figure is pretty damning, and from where I sit, it is a clear indicator that either Railoa didn’t trust his stuff to let it rip or that he didn’t feel like he had enough consistent downfield threats to do so. I’m inclined to think it was more the latter than the former.

Source: Hudl IQ

Although Railoa fell behind Big 10 averages in several metrics, he was just a freshman last season and didn’t always have the necessary tools around him to improve on those numbers. I think it’s a safe assumption that Railoa’s supporting cast will be better this year and that he’ll make a nice leap in Year 2.

Speaking of that supporting cast. The giant grain of salt with Railoa’s 2024 campaign is the talent that he was surrounded by. Last year’s receiving corps produced only one 500-yard receiver in Jahmal Banks. Isaiah Neyor was largely a letdown. And Jacorey Barney Jr. showed flashes, but he was only a true freshman, remember.

The run game was fine (at times) but also pretty unremarkable. Both Dante Dowdell and Emmett Johnson finished either slightly below or slightly above the 600-yard threshold. Not spectacular, but not horrible, either.

And the offensive line, although improved based on previous seasons, was still probably not good enough to open the necessary run lanes to generate a great run game or to protect Railoa well enough so he could attempt more deep, downfield pass attempts.

Source: Hudl IQ

Using the Hudl IQ Line Pressures tool, we can see just how frequently and where the Husker offensive line was allowing pressure. As you can see from the chart, the Huskers gave up significant pressure in the A gaps on either side of Center Ben Scott and the C gaps on the outside of both offensive tackles.

When you allow a ton of pressure both right up the middle and on the edge, that makes it difficult to scheme up run lanes or to protect the quarterback on obvious passing downs. Both limitations are tough to overcome. Having them work in tandem feels catastrophic for an offense.

All of the offensive limitations ultimately led to the demotion of offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield and the hiring of new OC Dana Holgorsen. With Holgorsen in place for the last few games of the 2024 season, the Huskers’ offense took a positive step forward.

The defense, on the other hand, was the Huskers’ saving grace throughout the majority of the season. Old defensive coordinator Tony White did a killer job of deploying two game-wrecking defensive linemen in Nash Hutmacher and Ty Robinson. He also put the linebackers and secondary in good positions to win, and it all resulted in Nebraska having a formidable defense that kept the team in a lot of games.

Nebraska had a busy offseason.

Rhule was tasked with replacing Tony White, and ultimately settled on former secondary coach John Butler. The special teams unit saw changes, too, with Rhule hiring new special teams coordinator Mike Ekeler.

The roster saw plenty of turnover as well. White took a few defensive players with him to Florida State. The offense also saw a reasonable amount of player churn.

Nebraska hit the portal hard, though, reeling in the 13th-best transfer portal class, according to 247 Sports. Notable contributors on that list include former Kentucky wideout Dane Key, former Cal receiver Nyziah Hunter, offensive linemen Rocco Spindler and Elijah Pritchett, among others. On defense, the Huskers will hope that former Missouri defensive lineman Williams Nwaneri can fill the holes left by Hutmacher and Robinson.

After a full spring and offseason with Holgorsen at the helm of the offense, I think it’s fair to bank on this group taking a significant step forward. Railoa looked way more comfortable with Holgerson calling plays down the stretch. And I don’t see why that should be any different. The offensive line should be significantly better with the additions of Spindler and others. And Railoa undoubtedly has better weapons to target with the arrival of Key and Hunter.

Most of the questions for this team will come on the defensive side of the ball. White did a masterful job during his time in Lincoln. And even if Butler does a nice job this season (and moving forward), I think for the time being, it’s fair to assume this group takes a step back.

I’m expecting Nebraska to be much improved on offense and worse on defense. Time will tell if the good will outweigh the bad and how much that impacts wins and losses.

Looking ahead to Nebraska’s 2025 schedule, fans have to feel great about how things are set up to get off to a hot start. The Huskers will take on Cincinnati at Arrowhead Stadium on August 28, and from where I sit, that game should be a win for the Big Red. Toss in a couple of easy non-conference games against Akron and Houston Christian, and the Huskers should be 3-0 before Michigan comes to Lincoln in late September. Other difficult matchups include games against Minnesota, USC, at Penn State and against arch-rival Iowa.

It pains me to say it, but this schedule has 8-4 written all over it. I’d be pretty surprised if the Huskers didn’t take a step forward this season.

If things break right, Nebraska could flirt with a College Football Playoff appearance. I don’t see that happening, but it’s not that far outside the realm of possibility.

Much like Odysseus’ journey, the road back to relevance is far from promised.

And even when he did make it back to Itahaca, he had to fight to prove he was who he said he was.

Nebraska can see the finish line. Relevance is within reach. But the fight? Well, that’s far from over.

The cruel reality about relevance in college football is that it’s as fleeting as it is meaningful. One day it’s here, the next day it could be gone.

If all things go to plan, Nebraska should finally feel relevant in Year 3 under Matt Rhule. How long might it last? Perhaps that’s a different story for a different day.