Quarterback Arch Manning drops back to throw a pass against the University of Texas San Antonio Road Runners. - Wikimedia Commons

Heavy is the head that wears the crown. And while arguably no one is as prepared for the weight of expectation as new Texas starting quarterback Arch Manning, that doesn’t make being the face of a College Football Playoff frontrunner any easier.

There’s a lot of noise surrounding Arch Madness as we inch closer to the 2025 season. Rightfully so.

Last year, in spot duty for the injured Quinn Ewers, Manning more than passed the eye test. In starts against Mississippi State and Louisiana-Monroe, he was a combined 41/60 for 583 yards and chipped in four touchdowns. In spot duty against Texas A&M, UTSA and Colorado State, he was electrifying with his legs, adding a different dimension to Steve Sarkisian’s offense.

Throughout the 2024 season, most of what Manning contributed was gravy on top of the Sunday roast. It was a nice to have. Last year, Manning showed flashes of equal parts brilliance and young quarterback naivety. This year he’ll be expected to go up a level - and I think he’s ready.

What I believe is great and all, but what does the data tell us? Using data from Hudl IQ (and what I know about this year's roster), I'm ready to make the argument for Manning’s big leap this fall.

Last season, with a very limited sample size, Manning wowed Texas fans with elite athleticism and big-time arm talent. On numerous occasions, he pinged deep balls to open receivers on the kinds of throws not many quarterbacks can make. He did enough to add clips to his highlight reel and left Texas fans salivating for this upcoming season.

Source: Hudl IQ

Using the Hudl IQ Player Radar, one of the first things that jumps out is Manning’s incredibly high Explosive % (12.5%) and Chunk % (27.1%). Both are good indicators of just how explosive the Texas offense was with Manning on the field.

The other thing that stands out from the Performance Radar is just how wildly successful that offense was when Manning was running the offense.

As you can see from the chart, when compared with average SEC quarterback play, Manning jumped off the page in EPA/Play, EPA/Rush and Success Rate. Granted, this comes in a very limited sample size (and against suspect competition), but I think it’s a good indicator of just how much of a positive influence on the Texas offense Manning was last season.

Source: Hudl IQ

219 plays is a pretty small sample size when compared to most starting quarterbacks. But there’s a lot to like about how Manning played with the limited opportunities he was given in 2024.

I was particularly impressed with his big-time Pass Explosive % (12.5%) and Pass Chunk % (27.1%). Both are significantly higher when compared to average SEC quarterbacks. And both are good indicators that Manning isn’t just some dink and dunk quarterback. On the contrary, he’s unafraid to let that thing rip downfield. This is/was a particularly powerful point when you compare Manning with incumbent starter Quinn Ewers, who tended to play it safe and throw short in high-leverage situations.

This season, Texas fans should be thrilled about the idea of Manning spraying passes to players like wide receiver Ryan Wingo and transfer right end Jack Endries.

Source: Hudl IQ

Using the Hudl IQ Player Comparison tool, we can see that last season, in a pretty limited sample size, Manning was most similar to quarterbacks like Miami’s Cam Ward, Washington State’s John Mateer, Montana State’s “Touchdown” Tommy Mellott and Tulane’s Darian Mensah.

That’s some seriously elite company. Ward was the number one pick in the NFL Draft. Mateer and Mellott were sensational dual-threat players. And Mensah was so good that he made the leap from Tulane to Duke for a major payday.

Manning will obviously take on a much bigger workload this season, one that will likely be comparable to the aforementioned quarterback company. If he can even somewhat keep up his Pass Explosive % (12.5%) and Pass Chunk % (27.1%) with an increased Usage Rate, it’s going to mean bad, bad things for SEC defenses.

Manning will surely experience some new-starter warts, but I suspect he’s going to be a breakout star for Texas in 2025. He’s had time to marinate with Sarkisian, and I see no reason why we shouldn’t expect Manning, the current betting favorite to win the 2025 Heisman Trophy, to be poised for a big first season at the helm.

Texas lost a discernible amount of talent from the 2024 team that made waves in the College Football Playoff, but there should be little to no concern about the group coming back to Austin. Particularly on the offensive side of the ball, I think the Longhorns will be a lethal threat on the national landscape.

According to 247 Sports, Texas brought in the 25th-ranked transfer portal class in 2025. Texas did a lot of work around the edges, but that’s the kind of work an elite program should do in the portal. This wasn’t a situation where Texas needed a ton of transfer portal players. This group was more about refinement.

One of the players that I am excited to see in Burnt Orange is former Cal tight end Jack Endries. Endries, a former four-star recruit for the Golden Bears, finished last season with over 600 yards and two touchdowns. Let me be clear about this…Endries will be Manning’s new best friend. He’s going to be the ultimate checkdown guy, and I suspect Manning and Endries will create a Mahomes-Kelce type relationship on the field.

Outside of Endries, I’m excited about the further development of sophomore wide receiver Ryan Wingo. Wingo has all the makings of a first-round receiver in the future. Sarkisian found some creative ways to get him the ball last season, and I suspect Wingo will be one of the top two receivers in this offense in 2025. I can’t wait to watch him ball out.

Looking ahead to the Longhorns’ 2025 schedule, Texas starts things off with a bang with a trip to The Horseshoe to take on the fifth-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes. That game will undoubtedly set the tone of the 2025 season. It’s difficult to put into words just how much hype that game will carry.

Texas plays a trio of non-conference games after OSU, before taking on Florida and Oklahoma, two teams hoping to make a big leap in 2025. Other big games include a trip to Athens to take on Georgia in mid-November and a late November clash against Texas A&M.

Heavy is the head that wears the crown. But Arch Manning appears ready to take the mantle as the next great Manning family quarterback.

Last year, Manning passed the eye test. The data backed up his play, too.

I fully believe that Manning is going to have a breakout campaign for Texas. I can’t wait to see him light it up for the Longhorns this fall.