TCU enters the game 3-0, fresh off a thrilling win against rival SMU in the Battle for the Iron Skillet last weekend. ASU, equally, comes into this one after a late winner against Baylor.

TCU has the makeup of a team that’s excellent at passing the ball and wholly unequipped to stop passing teams. The Horned Frogs, led by quarterback Josh Hoover, enter the game 17th in college football in Net EPA/Play (0.21) and have one of the more prolific passing attacks in the sport, as evidenced by their 53.1% Passing Success Rate.

Last week, Hoover and Eric McAllister tuned up the SMU defense. McAlister had the game of this life against the Ponies, and I suspect he’ll be a big point of emphasis in this contest.

On defense, I’m really curious to see how the TCU defense progresses week to week. They gave up a lot of yards last week against SMU, but got enough stops at the end to secure a victory.

What do the numbers tell us about ASU? The Sun Devils have a defense that is fairly proficient at limiting the passing game, but does not do a good job at stopping the run. I’m curious to see if TCU attempts to be a bit more balanced on offense to attack this Sun Devils’ defense at its weak point.

On offense, ASU has not lived up to the lofty standards it set last season with Cam Skattebo, despite quarterback Sam Leavitt and Jordan Tyson being back. The Sun Devils currently rank 89th in Passing Success Rate (41.3%). In short, the pass game philosophy has been “get the ball to Tyson or we’re screwed”, a third of the way through the season.

I’d love to see TCU attempt to run the ball a bit more against this lackluster ASU run defense. Even so, I suspect Hoover and Company will air it out to a certain degree, which should make for a fun cat-and-mouse game.

In what appears to be a fairly even matchup, I’m going to go against my better judgment and take TCU on the road in a close one. Give me the Horned Frogs.

Albeit against a weak schedule to this point, USC essentially has the best offense in college football. The Trojans sit at No. 1 at Net EPA/Play (0.49) and rank in the Top 10 in a whole swath of advanced stats, including EPA/Pass, EPA/Rush and Available Yards Percentage.

Quarterback Jayden Maiva has been excellent, zipping balls to a new-look receiving core that looks like one of the best units in college football. It’s not an exaggeration to say that this group looks vastly improved compared to last year’s unit. Lincoln Riley deserves a lot of credit for what this offense has produced so far, so kudos to him.

On defense, D’Anton Lynn has built a unit that defends the pass pretty well, but has, thus far, struggled to stop the run in a consistent manner. This will obviously be a point of emphasis moving forward. If the Trojans can’t limit their opponents’ run game soon, they might hit a brick wall against certain conference opponents.

Illinois is licking its wounds after getting drubbed by Indiana in primetime. I’m not sure there are a ton of takeaways from that game, outside of the fact that Indiana is a vastly superior football team.

The Fighting Illini’s offensive line got rocked, the defensive line did a horrible job of generating pressure and Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza picked apart the secondary with ease.

That final point makes me very nervous about what I’m expecting when the Fighting Illini take on USC on Saturday.

The key to this game for me is whether Illinois’ secondary can hold up against a killer USC pass attack. If Maiva gets going, it’s going to be another long day for the Fighting Illini secondary. I suspect Illinois will try to blitz early and often and get Maiva off his spots.

I really like USC in this spot. The offense is humming, and I think this group is a sneaky College Football Playoff contender. Give me the Trojans on the road.

LSU’s offense has been piss poor compared to preseason projections. The Tigers invested heavily in new wideouts and offensive linemen, hoping this would be the year that this team puts it all together and makes a push for the College Football Playoff and maybe a national title.

Thus far, the offense has been playing with the handbrake on. Quarterback Garrett Nussemeier has played way too conservatively—dinking and dunking checkdowns instead of pushing the limits of opposing secondaries downfield. The run game is still problematic. And the offensive line has gone through some early-season struggles, particularly in the run game.

Ole Miss feels like the polar opposite team to LSU. The Rebels have a free-flowing, free-scoring offense thanks to a bevy of playmakers outside, and more importantly, the emergence of quarterback Trinidad Chambliss. Chambliss has been a revelation since Austin Simmons went down, and I think Lane Kiffin is going to have a difficult time moving off him as the new QB1.

On defense, Ole Miss has done a nice job of limiting huge pass plays, but cannot stop the run to save their lives. LSU, on the other hand, is an excellent run-stopping team and has done a nice job of holding up in the pass game against Clemson and Florida…even if both of those offenses suck right now.

I refuse to believe that LSU can keep getting away with it on offense. This one feels as simple as: if LSU releases the handbrake, the Tigers can win the game. If they don’t, they won’t.

I have twisted myself into a pretzel trying to figure out this game. My heart says LSU, but I don’t trust the offense. This feels like a prime upsets spot for Lane Kiffin and the Rebels.

Big on big. Helmet on helmet. Let’s freaking do this.

Through four games, Oregon has been nothing short of a buzzsaw, making light work of its opponents and running up the score in style. The Ducks currently have a Top 5 offense and Top 15 Defense in Net EPA/Play, rank in the Top 10 in a ton of advanced offensive metrics and look every bit the part of a national title contender.

Quarterback Dante Moore has played great, and he looks like a Heisman Trophy candidate if the Ducks keep stacking wins.

Penn State notoriously brought back a ton of talent from last year’s CFP run, but thus far, the team has not lived up to the billing. Perhaps it’s boredom. Maybe they’re saving it for big games. Whatever the reason, this team has not gotten out of first gear yet, and it has me worried for a game of this magnitude.

The Nittany Lions’ offense currently ranks 80th (yes, 80th!) in Net EPA/Play, despite playing a cupcake schedule. Penn State is predictably running the ball well with Nic Singleton and Kaytron Allen, but quarterback Drew Allar has not played well through four games. Stop me if you’ve heard that one before.

The Nittany Lions have been fine on defense. But again, it’s been a cupcake schedule. They’ll be tested in new ways against Oregon this weekend.

The key to this game is Drew Allar, bar none. He needs to play much better than he’s shown so far this season if the Nittany Lions hope to notch a win.

I’m sort of sick and tired of watching this team play with training wheels because of Allar. I need to see something here.

I like Oregon on the road. I’m getting dangerously close to being out on Allar’s big-game abilities. Unless he totally flips the script, I don’t see the Nittany Lion offense being good enough to hang with the Ducks in this one. Give me Oregon in a nail-biter.

Speaking of helmet games, we’ve got another doozy in Athens. Attempting to watch both Oregon-Penn State and Alabama-UGA at the same time will be a challenge, but it’s one I’m willing to take on.

The Crimson Tide enter the game ranked 9th in EPA/Play, but just 122nd in Rush Success. I think this sort of tells the story of the Alabama offense. So far, this group has struggled to run the ball, and it bit them in the ass against Florida State. RB Jam Miller is supposed to return to action this week, and that should help. But the run game needs to drastically improve moving forward.

On defense, Alabama has done an acceptable job of holding up in the pass game, but feels very middle-of-the-road in the run game. Again, against Florida State, the Tide got carved up on the ground. Georgia will likely also try to run the ball, particularly with Gunner Stockton.

The UGA defense currently ranks 97th in EPA/Pass (0.12), and that bears out considering how many yards and scores this unit gave up to Tennessee a few weeks ago. The Bulldogs’ run defense has been pretty good. But the unit as a whole has done a poor job of forcing teams into 3rd-and-long scenarios, as evidenced by its 121st ranking in Average 3rd Down Distance.

On offense, UGA has been good both in the air and on the ground. Early game struggles pointed to a potential pass game problem, but I was encouraged by what I saw against the Vols. Stockton let it rip on numerous occasions, and although the Bulldogs probably should’ve lost, UGA found a way to win in the end and that counts for something.

Bama’s passing game versus UGA’s secondary should tell the story of this game. If QB Ty Simpson can get it going, I like Bama’s chances. If he struggles, UGA should win the game.

I feel like a crazy person, but I’m leaning towards Alabama getting a road win in a big spot here. I like the Tide in a very close contest.

-3 units overall

Notre Dame vs. +6.5 Arkansas - Let’s get nuts.

UMASS vs. -43.5 Mizzou - This should be a beatdown.

+3.5 Oregon vs. Penn State - I like the Ducks in a big road spot.

Ohio State vs. +9.5 Washington - Bring us home, Demond Williams Jr.