Ohio State enters the game on an unrelenting run of form. The Buckeyes rank fourth in Net EPA/Play and in the Top 10 in both Offense (0.21) and Defense (-0.22) in Net EPA/Play.

The Buckeyes’ offense has been good, with the offensive line creating nice run lanes and QB Julian Sayin completing an abnormally high percentage of his passes. WRs Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate have been very good. And the defense has allowed just 25 points over five games, good for 5 PPG.

Simply put, I don’t really see much of a way out for Illinois in this matchup.

Conversely, Illinois is ranked 16th in Passing Offensive Success Rate (51.5%) and tied for 72nd in Rushing Offensive Success Rate. This veteran-led group has not done a good job of running the ball, and it shows. QB Luke Altmyer is steely and has done a decent job in the passing game this season.

All that said, I can’t watch what unfolded against Indiana and expect Illinois to suddenly reverse course in another huge spot against a team that I think is significantly better than Indiana.

MAJOR IF, but if there’s a route to victory in this game, I think Illinois needs to try its damnedest to contain the Ohio State offense. Drag the Buckeyes into the mud, limit the amount of offensive possessions, and keep the Ferrari wide receivers on the sidelines. If the Fighting Illini can pull that off, they have a fighting chance.

If Illinois can’t slow the game down and make it muddy, I suspect it’ll be a significant win for the Buckeyes.

This game feels very 42-14 to me. I like Ohio State in a big spot.

I’m just going to say it, I like Missouri in this spot.

Albeit against a lackluster schedule, I like what I’ve seen so far out of Missouri. QB Beau Pribula looks every bit the part of a good quarterback, the secondary has done a nice job of limiting big plays in the pass game and Ahmad Hardy has been a revelation.

Now, the giant caveat in this discussion is that Alabama will surely challenge Missouri in unique and different ways. Bama QB Ty Simpson is on a heater, and I think the Alabama passing game could cause some problems for the Missouri secondary. I also think it’s worth considering that this will be Alabama’s third big game in a row (Georgia and Vanderbilt), while Missouri is fresh off a bye week.

My key to the game is Missouri RB Ahmad Hardy. Hardy is damn-near at the top of all SEC rushing metrics, and he’s totaled nine touchdowns already. He’s averaging almost 150 yards per game and rarely goes down on the first or second instance of contact. Simply put, he’s dominating football games at the moment.

If Missouri can get Hardy going, I think it’ll go a long way for Missouri’s upset bid chances.

If Hardy has a good game, Missouri can chew the clock. And if Missouri can chew clock, that means Simpson and company are standing on the sidelines, limiting their impact on the game.

Give me Missouri in a big upset spot. Hardy has a big game, and Missouri wins a close one.

Admittedly, I have no idea what to do with this game.

Texas is fresh off an embarrassing loss to Florida, one where the defense got carved up by DJ Lagway and Company, while the offense stalled out against what I think is a good Florida defense.

OU, on the other hand, still doesn’t know who will line up at quarterback on Saturday. Rumor has it that John Mateer might be back from hand surgery. If he’s unavailable or limited, the Sooners will rely on QB2 Michael Hawkins Jr.

Regardless of who is playing quarterback for the Sooners, are we sure they don’t have the QB advantage? I might be wrong here, but I just don’t see it with Arch. He can make a handful of nice plays per game, but doesn’t do the little things that will allow him to be a successful quarterback.

Watching Arch Manning and a two-loss Texas offense up against Venables’ vaunted defense is going to be a spectacle to behold. I think Venables is going to scheme up some diabolical stuff and make life very hard for the UT offense.

The key to the game has to be whether Mateer is healthy and able to give it a go. If Mateer is 80% of his top-end ability, it totally changes the outlook on this game. If not, this game could be pretty ugly with both Hawkins Jr. and Manning prone to mistakes and ineffective quarterback play.

I don’t like what I’ve seen from this Texas team this season. Manning has been debilitating, and it’s drastically limited Steve Sarkisian’s ability to effectively call plays and scheme guys open.

Give me Oklahoma in a grimy, ugly, low-ish scoring game.

This feels like the Quarterback Matchup of the Year.

Fernando Mendoza versus Dante Moore should be box office. Both quarterbacks have had fantastic seasons and are lurking as legitimate Heisman Trophy candidates. Both players have also come up big in primetime spots, with Indiana drumming Illinois and Moore leading Oregon to a massive road win in Happy Valley.

All that said, I think Oregon has a massive advantage in almost every other spot on the field, and for that reason, I’m riding with Oregon in another big spot.

Mendoza is an outstanding player, but I have a hard time seeing him playing so ostensibly well that it raises the level of this Indiana team to win on the road in Autzen.

I’m curious to see what Oregon cooks up on defense. Through three quarters against Penn State, the Ducks squashed any semblance of offense from the Nittany Lions. Oregon’s defense did a nice job of limiting the run game through three quarters, and it took a Herculean throw from Allar to get Penn State back in the game.

If Indiana can’t get the run game going, it’ll require Mendoza to throw them out of a jam, which should allow Oregon to rush the passer with reckless abandon.

I like Oregon at home. This feels like Lock of the Week territory.

+2.5 Oklahoma vs. Texas - Boomer Sooner, baby.

UAB vs. Florida Atlantic UNDER 69.5 - Let’s get weird

-6.5 San Diego State vs. Nevada - A little late-night action for your viewing pleasure.