The transfer portal quarterback market can feel a lot like an intense game of musical chairs.

From December to mid-January, the music plays, only growing louder with each passing minute. Fresh off a long, grueling season, quarterbacks are tasked with an ultimatum. Do I stay or do I go?

There’s no easy answer. Every situation feels a bit different. In the current landscape, every quarterback—more than any other position—feels like a one-year rental. As a 19 to 22-year-old, you’re forced to reckon with questions involving millions of dollars, playing time, wants, feelings and just about everything in between.

And for every highest-profile player who can essentially pick his next landing spot, there are many more guys just hoping to find a spot. The whole thing is frenetic, fascinating, head-scratching and silly. I can’t imagine what it might be like to go through the process. It doesn’t sound like a whole heck of a lot of fun, but that’s neither here nor there.

In early January, we officially got word that former Michigan State QB Aidan Chiles had landed elsewhere in the Big 10 with a move to Northwestern. While the news wasn’t too terribly surprising (Northwestern is probably an appropriate level for a player like Chiles), I did think the fit was intriguing.

Chiles is a former four-star quarterback who waited in the wings with Jonathan Smith at Oregon State, followed Smith to East Lansing, was the starter for around 20 games and later got benched down the stretch of the 2025 season. Chiles has traits and can do things that make you believe there’s a quality starter in there somewhere. But for one reason or another, Smith failed to extract enough of those good moments out of Chiles, which led to Chiles’ benching and later, Smith’s dismissal.

My intrigue around Chiles’ decision to play for Northwestern probably had less to do with Chiles and more to do with his potential fit in a Chip Kelly offense. In case you missed the news, Chip Kelly, yes, that Chip Kelly, is Northwestern’s new OC after being fired from the Las Vegas Raiders. If the move feels a bit weird, well, it’s because it is. Kelly went from calling plays for a national title-winning Ohio State team to OC of a Tom Brady-owned Raiders team to working for David Braun at Northwestern in what feels like around a calendar year. Some guys just really like coaching ball, I guess.

Chiles joining Northwestern without Chip Kelly calling plays would make me squeamish. With Kelly? Well, let’s say there might be something there.

So what is Northwestern getting in a quarterback like Chiles? Using Hudl IQ, I’ll break down Chiles’ 2025 season — identifying the traits that translate, the weaknesses that hold him back and ultimately, how he might fit into what Northwestern hopes to do on offense.

Before I dive into what Chiles’ strengths, weaknesses and potential fit at Northwestern, I’d like to add some context around how Chiles progressed year over year at Michigan State.

Using Hudl IQ Player Radar Data, we can see that Chiles had a pretty bad first year as the starter in East Lansing.

Looking at the Traits Radar (left side), we can see that the Michigan State offense relied on him to carry the burden about half of the time. And despite being the type of player that should theoretically offer something in the run game, he had ineffective QB Rush % and Scramble % figures. He also left the pocket about a fourth of the time, which effectively tells me that he had happy feet and had a hard time playing within the pocket. Not offering enough in the run game and leaving the pocket pretty frequently is a difficult combo to work with. Ideally, if someone leaves the pocket frequently, you’d like them to make plays with their arm and legs. But in this case, he did very little of either.

Looking at the Performance Radar (right side), we can see that he posted negative EPA/Play and EPA/Pass figures, and completed fewer than 60% of his passes. His negative CPOE (Catch % Over Expectation) (-1.5%) and Pass Explosive % (4.9%) paints the picture of a quarterback who was not only not throwing completable balls at a high rate, but a player who also wasn’t pushing the ball down the field — a bad pickleball quarterback and offense, if you will.

Simply put, it was an ineffective start to his career in the Big 10 Conference.

After a year as the starter, things were bound to get better, right? Right? Not exactly.

In an effort to be objective, let’s start with where Chiles improved.

Chiles got better and did some nice things with his legs through eight games in 2025. He posted a positive EPA/Rush figure (0.54) and increased his Yards/Rush numbers from the previous season. He also did a much better job of protecting the football in the passing game, as he threw just three interceptions across eight games.

Where did he regress? He once again posted negative EPA/Play and EPA/Pass figures, while his Net Yards/Pass numbers dipped year over year. His CPOE (Catch % Over Expectation) (-3.5%) and Pass Explosive % (2.4%) took a further dip when compared to his 2024 numbers.

This tells me that while Chiles did improve on his mobility and found ways to use his legs more effectively, he got worse as a passer. If I thought the 2024 offense was a pickleball offense, well, the 2025 version was that much worse. It makes a lot of sense as to why Chiles was benched after eight games. The offense was going nowhere with him at the helm.

Using the Hudl IQ Player Comparison tool, we can see that during the 2025 season, Chiles was most comparable to quarterbacks like Maine’s Carter Peevy, Iowa’s Mark Gronowski and Colorado’s Kaidon Salter. (For the sake of the exercise, I’m excluding Sam Leavitt, who was injured for much of the year, and Michael Van Buren, because he barely played.)

If I had to make a player comp using this information, I’d best categorize Chiles as a Mark Gronowski-style passer with Kaidon Salter-like rushing abilities.

Chiles can’t run as well as Gronowski did, but in the passing game, he endured similar struggles with pushing the ball down the field, often resorting to short, underneath passes with limited success. Salter, on the other hand, was someone who tried to use his legs to escape pressure and make things happen, but didn’t have the passing chops to make a big impact at the Power 4 level.

If Chiles works in Evanston, it’s because Chip Kelly doesn’t put too much on his plate, instead allowing him to rely on a good run game, solid defense and is encouraged to use his mobility to his advantage.

If he doesn’t work next year, it’s likely because Northwestern’s hellish 2026 schedule (which includes road games at Indiana, at Oregon and at Ohio State) takes its toll, Chiles’ development stalls for the third-straight season and Chip Kelly is unable to shine a light on the good aspects of Chiles’ game.

The goal of musical chairs is to have a place to sit when the music stops playing.

As it pertains to the transfer portal and quarterback acquisitions, things move quickly. For both Northwestern and Chiles, this feels like a marriage based on convenience, rather than talent or upside. When the music stopped spinning, Chiles needed a place to sit, while Chip Kelly and Northwestern needed someone to lead this new-look offense.

Time will tell if 2026 is any different or just the same old tune.